OCEAN: Russia's Shadow Fleet & more – 2nd Dec 2025

Ahoy from BA! This is the Rorshok Ocean Update from the 2nd of December twenty twenty-five. A summary of what's going down in the 70% surface of the Earth covered in saltwater.

Kicking off with some news from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air on Russia's shadow fleet reveals that these tankers are increasingly using false flags to circumvent sanctions.

From December twenty twenty-four to September twenty twenty-five, 113 Russian shadow vessels reportedly sailed under false identities, transporting about eleven million tonnes of Russian crude oil worth about 5.5 billion dollars, roughly 13% of the shadow fleet’s volume. In September twenty twenty-five alone, ninety tankers operated under false flags, which is six times the number from December twenty twenty-four.

The practices of false-flagging and flags of convenience weaken global maritime governance, bring security and environmental risks, and make sanction enforcement more difficult.

On a somewhat related note, Ukraine is persistently working to increase pressure on Russia. Ukraine has imposed sanctions on fifty-six vessels accused of illegally exporting grain and other food crops from occupied Ukrainian ports between twenty twenty-two and twenty twenty-five.

These sanctioned ships include vessels from different countries, including Russia. Ukraine estimates that these ships allegedly transported thousands of tons of wheat, sunflower seeds, and other foodstuffs.

Ukrainian authorities aim not only to freeze these vessels’ assets and restrict trade, but also to collaborate with other countries to stop issuing licenses and possibly revoke the ships’ registrations.

Apart from sanctions, Ukraine has launched attacks on the shadow fleet. On Friday, the 28th, two oil tankers exploded and caught fire aboard in the Black Sea.

Both vessels are linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, used to circumvent Western sanctions.

The first vessel exploded about twenty-eight nautical miles (about fifty-two kilometers) off the Turkish coast, followed thirty minutes later by a strike on the second vessel approximately thirty-five nautical miles (about sixty-five kilometers) offshore. Rescue operations evacuated all forty-five crew members safely.

Ukraine claimed responsibility for the strikes the following day and released a video showing the naval drone attack. Both tankers sustained critical damage, which will significantly impact Russian oil transportation.

The strikes mark an escalation in Ukraine’s campaign to disrupt Russia’s oil-export infrastructure amid the ongoing war.

Meanwhile, the Russian side received another setback when it failed to win back a seat on the governing council of the International Maritime Organization or IMO on Friday, the 28th.

The IMO has 176 member states responsible for ensuring safety, security, and pollution prevention in international shipping. Russia has been a part of the IMO since nineteen fifty-eight and was repeatedly elected to the IMO Council. However, in twenty twenty-three, it was removed following the invasion of Ukraine and did not regain a seat in the November twenty twenty-five election, despite showing strong interest in offering international shipping services.

Many observers viewed Russia’s failure to be re-elected as a disapproval of its invasion of Ukraine, including attacks on civilian vessels and port infrastructure.

In an update to a story from our previous show, the fire-damaged container ship ONE Henry Hudson has returned to berth at the Port of Los Angeles on Wednesday, the 26th, shifting from emergency firefighting to a complex cargo-removal phase.

Salvage teams have unloaded burned and water-damaged containers, pumped out flooded holds, and safely disposed of contaminated firefighting water and waste. The fired cargo hold remains heavily flooded, but the ship is stable. Air and water monitoring shows no public-safety risks.

The Coast Guard and the National Transportation Safety Board are jointly investigating the cause of the fire.

While some fires are extinguished, others break out. On Wednesday, the 26th, a fire broke out in the engine room of a container ship when berthed at Wilmington’s port.

The fire reportedly started with the ship’s generator and spread, triggering a large multi-agency emergency response, including the fire department, and multiple county and regional agencies. Fire suppression with onboard teams was carried out on several decks using water from the pier; the Coast Guard responded to assist from the water side, and eventually firefighters evacuated the engine room and used CO₂ flooding to put out the fire.

Three crew members sustained minor burn injuries and were taken to a hospital. Efforts to extinguish the fire are still ongoing.

In other news, Senegalese authorities reported that a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker had a potential oil spill after water entered its engine room.

The oil tanker issued a distress signal near Dakar’s coast overnight from Thursday, the 27th, to Friday, the 28th. Tugboats and specialized teams from the Senegalese navy and maritime authority were dispatched. The crew was safely evacuated.

To prevent hydrocarbon leaks and reduce environmental impact, Senegalese officials stabilized the vessel, prepared for fuel transfer, and deployed an anti-pollution boom around the tanker.

Now, an update on the investigation by the Nigerian National Drug Law Enforcement Agency into the four men who were transporting cocaine along the coast of Western Australia that we reported on in our last episode.

The Nigerian authorities detained twenty Filipino crew members for an initial fourteen-day period along with their vessel. The Philippine authorities reported that the seafarers were being well treated and in good condition, and they are expected to return home at the end of November. The authorities also said that their electronic devices were confiscated.

The bulker was relocated to the Lagos anchorage on Friday, the 28th, for further investigation. The Philippines side said that the crew has not given any statements about the seized cocaine.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC+ and its allies met on Sunday, the 30th and confirmed that oil output will stay steady through the first quarter of twenty twenty-six.

After modest output increases earlier in twenty twenty-five, the producers decided to pause further supply boosts to address signs of an oil surplus and market uncertainty. However, the Saudi Arabia and Russia coalition probably insists on making one more small output rise in December and then maintaining steady for the first quarter of next year.

The group also approved a new mechanism to assess each member’s maximum production capacity for setting twenty twenty-seven quotas.

To learn more about this story, check out the Rorshok Multilateral Update! Link in the show notes!

Shifting to environmental news, on Saturday, the 29th, environmental protesters blocked the shipping channel at a major Australian coal export port, Newcastle, forcing a loaded coal ship to turn back.

The climate activist group said they stopped the coal vessel using kayaks, small boats, and swimmers. Authorities report that this ship was the only one prevented from entering the port, while other shipping activities continued. Australian police arrested eleven protesters and are continuing the investigation into the disruption.

The incident highlights growing activist pressure on fossil-fuel shipping and the potential disruption these direct-action protests could cause to port operations.

In more environmental protection updates, Anthony Wiskich, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University, published an article about electric container ships on The Conversation on Thursday, the 27th.

Wiskich argues that fully electric container ships cannot realistically replace traditional fuel for long ocean voyages because of their heavy, expensive, and limited energy density batteries. Wiskich provides a better option, which is using smaller battery-vessel support ships to power container vessels for segments of their route, especially for short or coastal journeys.

This hybrid solution could help reduce emissions, though full electrification remains impractical under current battery technology.

To read the full article, check out the link in the show notes.

And to close this edition, let’s talk about how the Egyptian Liquefied Natural Gas or LNG unloading delay impacts the gas and shipping markets.

Due to the rising demand for LNG imports and limited terminal capacity, tankers arriving off Egypt have reportedly been waiting ten to fifteen days at anchor for a berth in recent weeks. This delay is worsening a shortage of LNG carriers in the Atlantic, pushing Atlantic LNG freight rates to a yearly high, tightening tanker availability, and increasing shipping costs worldwide.

Since the Egyptian government aims to expand domestic exploration and production instead of building permanent import infrastructure, the LNG unloading delays are likely to continue.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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See you next week!