OCEAN: Access to the Atlantic & more – 20th Feb 2024

Ahoy from BA! This is Rorshok’s Ocean Update from the 20th of February twenty twenty-four. A summary of what's going down in the 70% surface of the Earth covered in saltwater.

The Parliamentary Conference on South-South Cooperation took place in Rabat, Morocco, on Thursday the 15th and Friday the 16th. More than 260 participants from forty countries, including thirty parliament presidents, attended the conference. Global leaders talked about the urgent need for infrastructure development in the African Atlantic region to give countries of the Sahel region access to the Atlantic Ocean, as per the Moroccan King Mohammed VI's initiative that we talked about in previous shows. The initiative will leverage Morocco’s coastline to reinforce connections among Southern nations. The plan will encourage investment flows, trade, and sustainable development across Africa, the Arab countries, Caribbean countries, and Latin America.

In previous shows, we talked about China establishing its power in the Indian Ocean, causing concern for India. Well, the next goal for Chinese naval bases is the Atlantic Ocean, and the alarmed US and Western world will have to deal with it. According to Dr. Nadia Helmy, Professor of Political Science at Egypt’s Beni Suef University, China has a huge naval force and wants to open new bases in the area. For instance, the country is in talks with Cuba for a joint military base. Helmy stated that the US perceives China's presence in the area as invasive and a threat to its national security. Additionally, the Chinese approach to mix military and civil characteristics to its bases worries the US, as it might lose its influence in the region.

Still in the Atlantic. A new study published on Tuesday the 13th by the journal Geology says that the Atlantic Ocean could actually… close. It’s not something we will ever see, as it would probably occur twenty million years from now, but a new Atlantic ring of fire can form from the shift of tectonic activities from the Mediterranean Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. As one tectonic plate moves beneath the other, the subduction areas will become more active, which could lead to the entire closure of the Ocean. João Duarte, the co-author of the study, said that the Gibraltar Strait will play a key role in the process: the area was not so active in the past couple of million years, but as soon as it enters the Atlantic, researchers expect it to become significantly more active.

From the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, where other geopolitical battles are taking place. Tensions between the US, India and China are escalating, and small nations like Sri Lanka and the Maldives are caught up in it. As the journalist Rohantha De Silva explains in her article for the World Socialist Web Site, the recent visit of the Indian Navy to Sri Lanka, and the island turning down China’s request to send a research ship, show the Indian influence on the nation. Meanwhile, the Maldives cleared the way for the Chinese ship, signaling a shift away from India's influence. The Maldives’ President decided that India’s troops should leave the country, and the deadline for the withdrawal is approaching and the tensions are rising.

More about the Indian Ocean. According to an article in the journal Foreign Policy by reporter Keith Johnson, piracy is back in action off the East coast of Africa. India’s Navy is stepping up, deploying its largest-ever naval force to counter the threat. Somali pirates attacked around twenty ships in the Gulf of Aden since November twenty twenty-three. The attacks pushed India to strengthen its naval presence, ensuring the security of the Indian Ocean. This served as an excuse to send a message of strength to China, asserting a growing influence in the region.

Moving on to the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic ecosystem is rapidly changing due to the record heat that is making many species struggle to adapt. Sea ice loss threatens animals like walruses and polar bears, while land animals like lemmings and muskox face challenges from extreme weather. As the Arctic environment gets warm, invading species from the South disrupt the balance of the by-now old Arctic ecosystem. The climate is also affecting food sources, altering the entire food chain and affecting even large animals like marine mammals.

From the Arctic to the Antarctic Ocean, which has also seen better days. The Antarctic sea ice is not stable anymore, and its reduction puts global temperature regulation in danger. Like the Arctic species, Antarctic creatures, like penguins and seals, are threatened by climate change. Scientists are actively researching the causes behind this decline, like ocean currents, wind patterns, and greenhouse gas concentrations, to understand its implications.

In other news, the Greek shipping company Star Bulk will stop sailing through the Red Sea because of the recent attacks of the Houthi rebels on two of its ships. CEO Petros Pappas stated they requested the charterers avoid the Suez Canal, which leads into the Red Sea. The attacks caused minor damages and no injuries, but the insurance rates have skyrocketed in the last period. Pappas said: "We won’t be going through the Red Sea, so it does not apply anymore. For whoever it does, I suppose the more vessels that are hit, the higher the insurance rates that will be asked by the insurer.”

Let’s have a look at the Panama Canal. Due to climate change's impact on the Canal last year, authorities announced a shift of investments towards more sustainable practices. Specifically, they announced they would allocate 8.5 billion US dollars for decarbonization plans over the next five years. The investments include a photovoltaic plant, electric vehicles, and hybrid tugs for 3.5 billion US dollars and new sustainable projects for two billion US dollars. Two billion will be spent on a new water management system. The remaining billion will be invested in digital advancement and decarbonization processes. The Panama Canal Authority aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by twenty fifty.

Next up, the dynamics of power in the Black Sea are changing. According to the expert Alper Coşkun, the small Ukrainian resources are being successful enough to force the Russian Fleet to retreat. In this scenario, Turkey seems to be the only protagonist power left, benefiting from Russia’s back-off. Turkey’s maritime force in the Black Sea is growing, while keeping control of the maritime traffic in the Turkish Straits. Turkey’s position in the region is consolidated by its historical opposition to Russia and its commitment to the Montreux Convention, which regulates the passage of commercial and war vessels in the Black Sea during war times. This ensures the freedom of movement to all neutral countries’ vessels during the day, and forbids the passage of the ships of countries at war.

The Moroccan royal navy intercepted 141 migrants off Dakhla, attempting to cross the Atlantic Ocean to reach Spain's Canary Islands on Sunday the 18th. The rescued people were all Sub-Saharian, including three women and two children, and they probably embarked in Mauritania, which is a popular departure location for those who want to reach the Canary Islands. According to Morocco's Royal Armed Forces, the rescue operation took fourteen hours due to the bad weather conditions.

Closing with watersports. The Ocean Race Europe twenty twenty-five will begin from Kiel, Germany, on Sunday the 10th of August. The organizers announced that the event would aim to connect Europe, passing across the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel, and the Atlantic Ocean, and finishing in the Mediterranean Sea. The race should last around six weeks.

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See you next week!